Known Unknowns

So, the big news from the USYD party boat is that Calan will not be playing AUG this year. While I will admit I am sketchy on the details, apparently he has severe glandular fever and is in absolutely no state to play (so, Monash players, don't spend all uni games saying he should have 'hardened up', because he's a nice guy and he doesn't deserve the smack talk - seriously Monash, why are you guys such jerks?).

Dave Rountree and Alex Semfel are carrying injuries, and as far as I can tell, none of USYD's most excellent reserve players, Aki Lafllin, Philip Yates and Vivek Doshi, are committed to attending AUG, so this basically isn't great for USYD. I hate to buy into this cult of personality that seems to have sprung up around Calan - I don't personally think he would have provided much of a challenge to Alec Deslandes or Joel Pillar if he had been at AUG in 2008, although needless to say he has vastly improved as a player since then - but I'm sure there will be jibes directed at Brett Latham about this issue, I just hope he doesn't take them to heart.

Anyway. All of this got me thinking about uncontrollable events, and how you can adjust to them as a team, or as a player.

Injury

As above. It's bad enough if you get a dedicated role-filler out for the tourney due to a serious injury - as the case may be for Monash this year, with Cleetus out (get well soon Cleetus) - but losing a playmaker is devastating. The sensible way to deal with this is to utilise the player (especially if they're experienced) in a non-playing coach role, or as a dedicated sideliner. Make no mistake - if a player is a good sideline talker, concise, direct and audible, they can get you more blocks than Lego.

The non-sensible thing (at least from an injury management perspective) is to jerry-rig the injured athlete to a state where they can nut out a few points, usually on offence, usually handling. When there's a lot at stake, this approach can work, as it did for Owen and HOS this year at Nationals.

Of course, if an injury isn't so severe that it takes a player out of action entirely, but does effect their game, the onus is on the player to do a lot of things they're not used to (ice, stretch) to make the injury less of an issue.

Weather

Anybody who played Nationals in 2008, or NSW Mixed Regionals in 2009, or Melbourne Hat 2008, or [insert tournament with atrocious weather conditions, be it wind or rain] will know that there are some games where the weather plays an unfairly important role in determining the victor.

As a team it can be hard to adjust - there is only so much throwing you can do on the sideline improve accuracy in wind or rain - especially if you lack solid handlers. The benefit to zone defences, and teams that have practiced them, is notable.

So what can you do? Win the toss, for one. Positional play becomes important in wind, as does forcing flick options once conditions become wet. Reeling out junk defences - or conversely, reining them in, if all you're doing is letting their three Worlds-level handlers work it calmly up the field - are all options.

There's also another bit about weather, which has nothing to do with wind or rain, and that's climate shock. Taswegians playing in Perth have a substantial fish-out-of-water factor, and it's up to them (or Brisbanites playing in Canberra in winter, etc) to find some measure of comfort, whether it's donning thermals or drinking water like it's going out of fashion.

The Opposition

This is probably the most important of the 'known unknowns'. A wise man (who I think was Ken Shepherd) once said:

See them? That's the opposition. This is us. And the thing is, none of us have any control over what they play, or how well they play it. The only thing we're in control of is ourselves, and there is nothing stopping all of us from playing the best we can here tonight.

The key point to take from this is, your team won't be able to exert any control over how well their opponents play. In the Victorian Mixed Regional Championships just past, Tribe by all accounts did a great job of capitalising over a cranky Cranky, a team who was not playing their best ultimate, by any stretch of the imagination.

There are no magic bullets to this one - or if there were, and I had them, I would be raking in the dough working for the AIS, not fumbling through a uni degree working at a pizza joint and running a sneaky ultimate blog on the side.

The best you can do is to do the best you can do, as players and as a team.

It's The Fucking Catalina Wine Mixer

AUG 09. Let's do this.

The teams:

Sydney University

This is the team that other universities wish they had. USYD have a much stronger male line up this year - while they are missing Alex Baume's cutting prowess, they managed to pick Calan this time, which has given them a much-needed tall, fast, athletic receiver who can also throw and maybe defend Alec. Their girls line would be a tad weaker - having lost Tara Carraro and Heather Smith - were it not for quite handy pick ups in Sarah Crossie and Maya Mileck.

Will they live up to their potential and take home the gold? Who knows? They suffered last year from some tactical errors (no Calan, relying on pommy zone to generate turns when it really really wasn't) and somehow managed to turn most of the other universities against them. If they don't implode, they will medal.

Oh. And their coach is apparently ditching them for her wedding rehearsals from Thursday onwards. Tough break.

Newcastle

This is another pretty broad team - perhaps lacking the Nationals/Worlds experience of USYD, but most of their players I recognise from previous university campaigns if not tussles against I-Beam. They've lost a potent receiver in Dave Jarrott, and it will be interesting to see how their game changes. As far as their girls line goes, they've lost some dead weight with Daniel Clenton being unable to afford the trip, but will have the usual Sugar Mag connections between Liz Dodd, Ellie Sparke and Tegan Sneddon - although it doesn't look like they'll have much more than that.

I think bronze is a good final placing for these guys. Ellie is carrying injuries into the tournament, and they're just lacking in the star power the other semi-finalists are packing.

UTS

Ah, what could have been - UTS are probably the club with the most potential in university ultimate, but one year on, they're still falling short of the mark. Focusing a lot on the 'fun' aspects of ultimate (social leagues, team parties) has done wonders for recruitment and retention of their player base, but they are struggling to produce any stand-out names. Picking up Antonia Melo and Rachel Grindlay has helped fill the girl-handler void, but it may be a case of too little, too late.

UQ

Is John McNaughton's AFDA number really 1753? Wow - he really joined early.

As a list of names, this is certainly impressive. They didn't really need much more than Julian Sacre and John to make semi's, but they've also got Alistair Don and Piers Truter. As far as females go, Blair, Bree and Megan Barnes are all players who can expect to win most match-ups at a university level, although there seem to be a lot of very high AFDA numbers in their ranks - could mean weak links, could mean American imports.

There are going to be very few teams that can stop UQ's big names from doing whatever they want. Barring freak injuries, Harold Holt-style disappearances during lunchtime swims or Al and Piers running out of strapping tape, this team should make the final.

Flinders

The lack of Alec and Erin could have spelt their downfall (picture a confused Joel Pillar drawing team strategies on a whiteboard and giving up in frustration because 'huck to Alec' and 'one-two with Alec' aren't allowed) but they picked up Brett Middleton, who sources say is 'all right. A bit flat chested, but all right'. Flinders aren't really a one trick pony. Sean Lace, Scott Middleton and Ben Foley all add a bit of depth to the side, although Sarah Pillar may struggle to hold the girl's side together all on her lonesome. Smallish roster, too.

Semi-finalists for sure, the rest is up to them.

BUUF

So Dan Rule and Timill have made a pretty decent Opens team, realised only too late that the format of AUG is mixed, it should be interesting to see how that works out for them. To be fair, Amanda Eastwood is a great player, and she'll have Greta backing her up. Also, I'm assuming Sarah Talbot is Simon's sister, or wife, or possibly sister-wife. I wonder if she's good looking.

UWA

Having lost the Elder Eley and Glen "Chook" Fowles will hurt them, for sure. Who is going to throw swill at Kendall Thorn? They've picked up Peter Eley, who will surely get some blocks and promptly throw it away. Let's be honest: UWA are a wildcard, pure and simple. The only thing anyone knows for certain is they're bound to be good value, both on the field and off. Should be interesting to see the WA women's contingent (S-J Robinson, Danya Meakins) assert themselves after a strong Nationals campaign.

Griffith

Expect improvised junk defences, silly pivots and some surprises from this team. Seeded 12th from 12 in division one, I can see this team beating their seed on the strength of their one good handler and his ability to tailor an entire team around his skillset. Apparently they have a Tiina Booth-tutelaged American import, as well, and I expect they'll give the party a pretty good showing.

Monash

The possible loss of Stephen Johnson to ACL damage really does put a dampener on this team, who already had to deal with an injured Sebastian Barr. This team has a lot of proven talent, as their convincing title at Southerns shows. Hopefully this year they have less games decided by universe point - I think last year they had four or five. Pre-bad news, this team had a sure place in the final of AUG, and now I'm sure they'll be able to get there, but they'll all have to work that little bit harder. Looking forward to seeing them in action.

Macquarie

Such great heights! We are carrying a lot of injuries into this campaign. The men are mostly B-grade Fakulti players (myself, Rory, Nathan Wong, Yoann) and beginners, the women are Gamble, Monica Chang and then the usual suspects and beginners. A great team when playing well and gelling together, nonetheless I think our hopes at a medal are pretty slim. Massive squad though. Also, check out where we're staying!