Surprise #1: Good teams will miss out.
As has already been pointed out this is the year of no more chances. Teams have been missing out on going to Nationals since Regionals was first invented, this is nothing new. In 2010, for the first time in the East (the South have been complaining about it happening to them for years, and were rewarded for their bitching/participation at Regionals with an extra spot this year) decent teams will miss out.
With four spots not including possible wildcards, the Open division becomes extremely interesting. On paper and on history, Umlaut, Hills and Fakulti can forget about booking flights to Adelaide. I expect the top four spots to be some combination of the two even-split Colony (Sydney WUCC team) teams, Fyshwick, I-Beam and the Eastern Greys.
Hang on, you say to yourself, counting on your fingers - that's five teams!
Welcome to surprise number 1: good teams will miss out.
Surprise Number 2: Fakulti.
What happened? After coming an average of 8th place at Nationals two years running (08: 1st and 16th; 09: 7th and 9th) the current Fakulti team seems to be a mixture of fresh legs and Fakulti players who aren't going to Clubs or didn't make the Colony squad. Led by Rhys Hearne and Cemil Browne, calling this team Fakulti is equivalent to stealing one of Tom Rogacki's cleats and entering it as Chilly at Southern Regionals.
The Fakulti brand hasn't been this maligned since Fakulbee in 2008.
Surprise Number 3: Southside.
Four spots at Eastern Regionals for Womens doesn't seem too surprising. Wildcard have managed to split their hegemony between WUCC contenders and their non-jetsetting counterparts, who on the strength of their big names alone - all eastern Firetails and Mundi's - should both make it. Sand Dunes (Hills/Manly) have quite a good team name, but may not have the depth of throwers required to make it to Nationals. Sugar Magnolias apparently provided the stiffest competition for Wildcard Clubs at Share the Love this past weekend, which bodes very well for their campaign, and fACTory Girls chances rest (largely due to my lack of knowledge of the Canberran women) on finding Vickie Saye, and getting someone to throw the disc at her.
The surprise here is Southside. Yes, they came 3rd in 2008 and didn't really figure in the mix last year, but the persistent narrative going around Sydney is that they are a club in decline, with the lack of a strong player base in the city's South and the dominance of Wildcard's 'hey so we pretty much win Nationals every year, also we control NSW ultimate, you probably want to play with us' recruitment method contributing to their waning. Southside this year have opted to nut up rather than shut up, with returning players Stettner, Wentworth, Moore nee Jarrot, Ryan and Kinneally augmented by enthusiastic fresh blood and team training/bonding camps a la HoS. Here's hoping it works out for them.
